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Escape From Covid
One way to view why China exited from Covid the way it did.
The logic behind China’s Covid Exit Strategy
Many of us are wondering just why China chose to exit from Covid the way it did. We decided to explore this and came up with the following outline which we are using as our operating hypothesis which details the chronology of events and some poignant moments starting in the Spring of 2022.
Spring of 2022
Covid hits a few keys cities in China
China is horrified that fatality rates will mirror Hong Kong where death rates were some of the highest in the world
Li Qiang voiced a wish to open Shanghai, but Li Dequan overruled him. (This may or may not have just been political theater to placate the masses)
Lock downs continue and Covid caseloads are held in check
Workers in Guangzhou tell the white guard to bug off, violently and en masse
The economy, particularly services continues to collapse
Summer of 2022
Discussion continues about when to open…
…But we need to make sure that the end of year coronation goes well so let’s wait. Things are calm now.
Maybe our team will develop a vaccine and we can avoid this capitulation to the west.
And traditional Chinese medicine tells us that these communicable diseases die off in the third year (or at least are less deadly)
Oh shit, the export market has disappeared. Now there are no engines of growth…3% GDP looks bad
Dither, dither, dither…
Hey boss, what do you want to do?
Ok, old Wang let’s just stay the course. I don’t know what he wants either! Let’s just err on the side of caution. Keep testing and lock down any breakouts. This method still basically works, or at least seems to and at least we have a better chance of keeping our heads.
Fall of 2022
Holy shit, the export market has disappeared, and we don’t have services and we can’t build real estate, infrastructure…remember that message about we give you growth and you don’t challenge our control of the state…well that is really starting to ring hollow!
Rumbling from the masses, we don’t want to be align with Russia and don’t think that we have any interest in living like the North Koreans!
Fire in Xinjiang
Three lamas on Wulumuqi Road乌鲁木齐路 (草泥马， 操你妈) aka 2022 Tank Women
White guard to command control: “We are losing control. Request permission to engage!” Command to the Front line: “Negative. Look tough and pick up those pesky empty sheets of paper. And track everyone. Change codes to yellow on protesters. Visit all protestors and covert to green or red as per protocol.”
The dear leader speaks: “Covid has been downgraded to a normal flu. We won a long hard battle. Let’s get back to work. It is time to make peace with the world and support business.” (Hot mic records: “How did that sound? Do you think they will believe us? Shit that was close.)
The plan was to open in the spring of 2023 after the final structure was settled on the latest political reshuffle
The leadership was stuck. They wanted to go left but the dragon they are riding already turned right.
And they concluded, if we want to stay in power without killing the economy and losing the mandate of heaven, we better adjust.
How do we adjust? Declare victory and open up!
Chinese democracy in action